Bears Smell Oil Bubble
搀水的油价？

The higher oil soars, the louder the cries of bears that it can't be justified.
油价涨得越高，认为高油价没道理的看跌派喊得就越凶。

Crude-oil prices hit an exchange record $89.47 a barrel yesterday in New York Mercantile Exchange trading -- gaining more than $10 in 10 days. Some contrarians are starting to declare these price levels unsustainable and even a 'bubble.'
周四，纽约商品交易所的原油价格创下了89.47美元的历史新高，比10天前整整上涨了10美元。一些反派人士则宣称，这样的油价难以维持，甚至已有“泡沫”成份。

Stephen Schork, energy trader and author of the Schork Report on oil and gas, called the rise merely a distraction on the way to a big correction. He says prices could fall to $65 to $68 a barrel.
能源交易员、油气市场报告Schork Report的作者斯蒂芬?施洛克(Stephen Schork)认为，这波上涨只是油价走向大幅回调过程中的一个插曲。他说，油价可能会回落到每桶65-68美元。

Says fellow bear Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citigroup Inc.: 'The bullish case has been at least two parts hype for each element of legitimate support.'
花旗集团(Citigroup)能源分析师蒂姆?伊文斯(Tim Evans)同样看跌油价，他说，看涨意见里的每一份理性支持成份都对应着两份狂热因素。

These skeptics claim prices are being driven not by the fundamentals of supply and demand, but by a blend of jitters and a flood of speculative cash.
这些怀疑高油价的人认为，现在的油价不是被供求关系所推动，影响油价的是一系列暂时的不安定因素以及大量投机热钱的炒作。

Investors have poured into energy-futures contracts as they retreat from seemingly less-attractive bets in stocks, bonds and currencies, analysts say. Trading volumes are exploding on easier-to-use electronic oil-trading platforms.
分析人士表示，投资者纷纷从看似缺乏吸引力的股票、债券和外汇市场转向了能源期货市场。在电子交易系统里，交易量呈爆炸式增长。

Most bears see $45 to $65 a barrel as a more realistic price for oil. But even many of the most bearish bears say oil might not start to retreat until it first rises high enough to force a significant shift in demand -- for instance, by changing people's driving habits.
多数看跌派预计，比较现实的油价应在45-65美元之间。不过，即便是最悲观的看跌派也认为，油价回落之前还有一个过程，那就是要等到第一波上涨后油价高到足以促使需求方面发生转变，比如，改变人们的驾驶习惯。

That price could be as high as $120 a barrel, according to Thomas Petrie, energy banker and Merrill Lynch & Co. vice chairman, speaking yesterday at the Houston conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas-USA, a group that contends oil production could peak between now and 2015.
而在美林(Merrill Lynch)副董事长托马斯?皮特里(Thomas Petrie)看来，油价有可能涨到每桶120美元。他是周四在Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas-USA于休斯顿举行的会议上做出此预言的。该组织认为，从现在到2015年之间，石油生产将达到顶峰。

The price of oil remains 12% below its inflation-adjusted record close of $101.70, hit in April 1980.
如果以经通货膨胀调整后的价格计算，目前油价比1980年4月创下的每桶101.70美元的最高结算价还低12%。

Of course, oil-futures prices reflect what's going on in the real physical market, and there are plenty of statistics that suggest rising demand and crimped supply will continue to keep prices high. Independent energy economist Philip Verleger argues there is no chance of prolonged lower energy prices 'absent a severe recession or depression.' He goes further, suggesting that oil prices early the next decade could top $200 a barrel.
当然，现货市场的喧嚣在期货市场上也有反映，而且有大量统计数字显示，需求上升和供应受阻将继续支撑油价。独立能源经济学家菲利普?沃勒杰(Philip Verleger)认为，低油价是不可能长期持续的，除非出现严重的经济下滑或衰退。他进一步预言，下一个十年的头几年，油价还有可能超过200美元

词汇与短语:

hit a record   创下纪录

New York Mercantile Exchange 纽约商品交易所

contrarian  n.逆市投资者

unsustainable   adj.不能成立的, 不能支持的

distraction   n.分心; 分心的事; 消遣, 娱乐

hype    v. 大肆宣传,炒作

legitimate  a. 合法的,正当的

jitter    抖[颤]动, 颠簸

contend  v. 主张

physical market 现货市场，现金市场

crimp     a. 脆的 

Sentences

The bullish case has been at least two parts hype for each element of legitimate support.
译文：看涨意见里的每一份理性支持成份都对应着两份狂热因素。

These skeptics claim prices are being driven not by the fundamentals of supply and demand, but by a blend of jitters and a flood of speculative cash.
译文：这些怀疑高油价的人认为，现在的油价不是被供求关系所推动，影响油价的是一系列暂时的不安定因素以及大量投机热钱的炒作。